Articles written by Arthur Penrose

Sciences > Mathematics Statistics & lies: Assessing the value of collected data: 1 of 10

It has been said that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. The quote is often attributed to Mark Twain, but in fact he was quoting British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. "Figures often beguile me," wrote Twain, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark at...
Sciences > Mathematics Bayes theorum: 2 of 3

Suppose you're given a test to determine whether or not you have a rare, incurable, fatal disease. If you do, there's a 99% chance that the test will be positive, but if you don't there's a 99% chance the test will be negative. The test comes back positive. What's the chance you have the disease? Many would instantly think t...