: About Me

"Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." Said by the great physicist Niels Bohr, these words should inspire humility in anyone who hopes to foretell the events of tomorrow. Too many prominent columnists and academics make overconfident predictions after analyzing only one or two aspects of a situation. Thinkers who do thorough analyses tend to be much less confident. But even though folks tend to be overconfident when analyzing markets, geopolitics, and other present-day systems, they tend to be underconfident when talking about far-future events. It is often assumed that fa...