In the next 20 years,the world's cities will go through a fundamental transformation.Many of them will expand greatly in size and population,and still have to serve the basic mobility needs of their people in a world of ever rising oil prices.
In the second half of the 20th century,major cities of the world began to emulate the transportation policy of the United states of America.Countries like Nigeria admired the US automobiles and adopted its high-way design methods to reshape their cities around the automobiles.Back in the 20th century,this seems unwise.Oil prices reached very low levels than ever known,and large companies in important sectors engaged in using vehicles.Cities grew out of this concept and tended to make it easy to drive anywhere .

Many African cities are the ultimate manifestation of this economic structure.Roughly 90% of residents in Lagos{most populated city in Africa}rely on private cars or public buses for their daily movements.In New York city,ith the largest mass transit system,about one-third of the population still drive to work.Roughly 72% of these trips are less than 8 kilometres and 22% less than 2 kilometers.It is only in the US that many people find it necessary to move weighty vehicles such as the SUVs,jeeps and Humvees for short trips.This is why the US consumes roughly a quarter of the world's annual oil production.
In the developing countries like Nigeria,where per capita income is sometimes as low as a dollar per day,only the wealthiest 10% of the population are likely to own a private vehicle in their lifetime.So,the domination of public spaces by the motor vehicle directly translates to domination of public spaces by the ultra-rich.Because the population steadily rises in Nigeria,expanding roads is generally a priority.It is more expensive and socially difficult in developing countries,requiring the forcible relocation of people and buildings sometimes without compensation.As a result,congestion tends to become a problem at a much lower level of motor ownership.
As US urban cities and Asian cities continue to sprawl,the population centres in the developing countries motorise and continue to depend on petrol for heating and lightling energy.However,higher oil prices may be compensated by lower vehicle costs.China,Mexico,Brazil,and India have moved into vehicle manufacturing,and are producing vehicles at unbelievable low costs by historical standards.
Car owners should be prepared for days of expensive oil,cheaper vehicles,few motor vehicle manufacturing jobs and tight competition for limited road space.Where no Government action is taken,the clear winner is this emerging transport market place.In China,and developing countries like Nigeria and Burkina-Faso,sales in motorcycles and electric bicycles have skyrocketed.In Africa and south east Asia,motorcycles are having an exploding share of the vehicular traffic.Though relatively rare in Africa in the past 20 years,it has spread rapidly.It's affordability helps millions of poorer people to travel cheaply,using relatively little fuel.
Bicycles are also extremely efficient users of road space and no pollution,but their increasing use is generally accompanied by escalating road fatalities.These problems could be solved by effective regulations.A growing number of dynamic people, are winning political power by challenging the needs of motorists over the needs of public spaces and decent facilities for transit and non-motorised models.Also,African political office holders who love to go in a convoy of cars while on duty should remove such mentalities so that enough spaces will be created for other road users.

Learn more about this author, Tunde Adelakun.
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