In my old Air Force unit we had a saying when it came to the weather, "You're guess is as good as mine." The weather is not only constantly changing but so are the cycles which drive it. It is understood that meteorologist and atmospheric scientists consider cycles a bit differently from laymen but still there is common ground.

Most people are familiar with the phenomena we call El nino and La nina, but they are far from the only cycles globally. In fact there are so many it would almost take an entire book to explain them all as each micro climate has it's own evolving cycles. For sake of simplicity let's just discuss these cycles in general terms.

For starters it is often thought and reported that man made global warming is driving the weather cycles. The truth of the matter is that although it does act as a contributing factor it's role is greatly over emphasized. The earth has gone through cycles similar to what it is now experiencing before man ever walked the planet which should lead people to believe we aren't as big a factor in the weather as we tend to think. The simple fact is naturally occurring phenomena such as volcanic eruptions do more to change weather cycles than nearly a decade of mans abuse. Yes it does sound unbelievable but the immediate impact of the release of immense amounts of sulfur and ash into the atmosphere are far more pivotal in cycle changes than the slow cumulative effect of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) or smog.

Approximately fifteen years ago we rang in the El nino era and theories to it's cause were postulated by all. It's global warming, it's part of the seven seals of the apocalypse, and even government conspiracy associated to weather manipulation. Any reason you can imagine sensible or not was floated to explain this. The simple answer however is that it was just nature being nature. The earth operates itself on a delicate system of checks and balances and what we were experiencing was simply the product of that.

To further calm fears of alarmists it can be pointed out this cycle actually began just over one hundred years ago. Let that sink in a moment. We are now seeing that era slowly end over perhaps the next fifty or so years when things are predicted to become more in tune with what we expect seasonally followed by a slow cooling period. It is then expected to slowly warm again. During this cycle there were periodic increases in hurricanes and typhoons which made landfall, but when each decade is compared

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