As the Philippines embarks on elections for a new president in 2010, the dominant issue galvanizing the minds of her people is the price of rice. Whilst the global costs soar for this basic food staple, the country (the world's biggest rice importer) is facing a crisis.

Unlike their neighbours in Thailand and Vietnam, successive Philippine governments chose to invest in the service sector over agriculture. This failure of foresight, which had the potential to make the country self sufficient in food production, has resulted in its need to import over two million tons of rice annually.

If that's not pause for thought, imagine this nation's desperate reliance on the commodity. The population has risen by an unprecedented 27 million in as many years to almost 90 million today. It is forecast, at current trends, to reach 140 million by 2040.

Such is the necessity of rice in the diet the average Filipino spends 40% of his income on its consumption. As almost half the population attempts to survive on less than $2 a day, the food demands in years to come for this ever growing populace can never be overstated, and will overshadow all future matters of state. The challenges ahead are immense.

Yet there is no actual shortage of rice globally. It is the consumer, fearful of reports day after day of rising costs, that has led them to stockpile. This panic buying resulted in depletion of government reserves, which forced the authorities to make additional demands from exporters.

With 3 billion people worldwide relying on rice as their mainstay, and speculation of impending future supply problems effecting and driving fast moving prices, buying on the international market has become more difficult.

Producers like Thailand are finding it complicated to set the right price and to measure and balance it against the high degree of desperate buyers. Furthermore, in order to ensure stability for their own people, some governments have shut off exports altogether in an effort to control prices at home, which compounds the uncertainties of the importers.

The rice crisis in the Philippines, fuelled by unscrupulous traders hoarding vast amounts of rice in order to maximize profits, has focused much needed attention to the debate on self-sufficiency. With prime agricultural land depleting rapidly, whether through factors of urban build, deforestation, bio-fuel production, or even climate change, the government is now addressing issues to make farming more productive.

In the drive to be a hub of technological excellence, embracing a global IT and telecommunications nucleus, the Philippines may find the cost of this growth considerably at odds with the decimation of it's flora and fauna, and decimation of it's countryside. In this brave new world it is a lesson which other developing nations contemplating a similar path may do well to heed.

Learn more about this author, Bar de Ness.
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