by Zach Bigalke

Created on: April 09, 2008   Last Updated: October 31, 2008

I was recently asked to debate about whether or not the Tampa Bay Rays, in shedding the Devil from their image, could also shed their also-ran status and finish second place in the American League East at least once in the next five years. I immediately thought back to terrible losing seasons and poor mismanagement of the franchise and was quick to deny the team any possibility of reaching a runner-up finish in perhaps the toughest division in Major League Baseball. Looking into the crystal ball is always an inexact science. But in the case of Tampa Bay and its MLB franchise, it is safe to assume that this team will NOT be a second-place team in the AL East in the next five years... and here's why...

There will always be at least two teams in the division spending princely sums: Boston and New York, who have combined to win the AL East every year since Tampa Bay entered the league. As long as the Yankees & Red Sox are in division, Tampa will be fodder for more powerful teams... and because Boston & New York are in division, the other teams - Toronto and Baltimore - are also always spending as much as possible to keep up with the roster proliferation. Tampa, in comparison, increased spending by $20 million from 2007 to 2008 and STILL ranks 29th out of 30 Major League teams in payroll, and is more apt to SELL a good player than SIGN him...

The problem is that Tampa simply doesn't WANT to raise its payroll beyond the league cellar, consistently fielding green teams. Its profits in a small market remain the same, whether with a winning team or a losing team... just ask the Marlins. Tampa will not outspend or outperform at least three of the four - Boston, New York, Toronto or Baltimore - in any one of the next five seasons. They haven't before...

Tampa CAN improve gradually, but it must show a greater commitment to keeping its nucleus of talent than it has at any other point in its nascent history. My friend asked, "Do you think ownership will just let this golden opportunity slip away?" The reality is that Tampa HAS let its opportunities slip away in the past... and there is no solid indication, beyond the HOPE that ownership will retain its young talent, that there are any but cosmetic changes in the organization...

Past success gives us an indication of the future fortunes of a franchise. Just look at the division's second-place victory totals in the past six years in the AL East:

2007: New York Yankees - 94 wins
2006: Toronto Blue Jays- 87 wins
2005: Boston Red Sox

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