by V. Kumar

Created on: April 05, 2008   Last Updated: August 06, 2008

One can expect struggles for water, but most of them would get converted to war only if there are other political reasons as well.

Any wars involving control over water are more likely to be a result of an ongoing political dispute for other reasons like boundaries, dominance, supremacy and economy, not primarily because of water shortages. However, water dispute can easily become a precipitating factor between hostile neighbours waiting to get a reason to get at each other's throat.

RIVERS FLOWING THROUGH INTERNATIONAL BORDERS

In our current settlement spread over different territories, many rivers flow across more nations than one. Thus nations situated upstream are in an advantageous position in terms of placing control over those rivers. This gives them a weapon in hand which they can use in case they wish to exert undue influence over other countries that depend on the water of those rivers flowing downstream.

This is more common in case of major rivers flowing across smaller countries. Till now, this has not happened, but in the future, when most developed and developing nations are averse to fully blown up wars, because of the immense destruction associated with them, some countries may use tactics like this as an alternative to military offense, or may use it to provoke the other party to initiate the first military move, thereby shifting the responsibility of conflict to the opposite country.

WATER SCARCITY & THREAT TO PEACE : URBAN - NON URBAN DIVIDE

Water is definitely becoming a scarce commodity, and this will also contribute to the use of water in defense strategies, but this scarcity is very unlikely to become the sole cause of such conflicts. More likely, it can lead to heart-burning between the non-urban territories which supply water and the highly urbanized centers which receive them, over price of water supply. The demand for water will continue to rise in these cities, as their population increases, and as the paying capacity of people residing there goes up.

Such urban - non urban tensions are particularly likely to happen in developing countries. Rapidly expanding cities will need diversion of water from other reservoirs and resources including ground water, to them, and when it comes at the cost of needs of water for economic activities like agriculture, fisheries or other industries in the areas from which water is diverted by the governments, there will be resistance.

Even if both the areas are within the same country, there could be stress

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