by Robert Williscroft

Created on: April 02, 2008

The potential for nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan in June 2002 cooled off following shuttle diplomacy by Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, but a review of the region's history and an analysis of the nuclear forces of both countries leads to the conclusion that the danger remains high, even today.

Why did these two neighboring states in South Asia come to the edge of a nuclear war?

It is difficult for Westerners to comprehend everyday conditions as they exist in the Indian subcontinent. Nearly the entire region fell under British rule during the 19th century. Finally, in 1947, Great Britain gave up is role in the region, resulting in the creation of two sovereign nations: India and Pakistan. India consisted of nearly the entire subcontinent, except for an area to the northwest about twice the size of California and another section to the east about the size of Iowa that surrounds the Ganges/Jamuna river delta, which - taken together - formed Pakistan. Then in 1971, East Pakistan broke away from its distant sister to form the independent nation of Bangladesh.

The obvious question is why would this region break into three separate nations?

The answer is, of course, complicated and open to many interpretations.

Bangladesh has very limited natural resources consisting of natural gas, some arable land, timber and coal. But one-third of the nation floods each year. Consequentially, it is one of the poorest nations on Earth.

Pakistan is somewhat better off with land, extensive natural gas reserves, limited petroleum, some poor quality coal, iron ore, copper, salt and limestone.

India, on the other hand, is rich with natural resources, having the fourth-largest coal reserves in the world, iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, titanium ore, chromite, natural gas, diamonds, petroleum, limestone and lots of arable land.

So why did they break up as they did? Why would the northwest region of this vast land decide to separate itself with its limited resources from the riches to the south? And in particular, why would the poverty-stricken eastern portion go first with Pakistan, and later strike out on its own?

What force in human society can overcome these disadvantages?

An examination of the religious preferences of these three regions suggests a compelling answer.

India consists of about 81 percent Hindu, 12 percent Muslim, 2 percent Christian, 2 percent Sikh, and about 3 percent Buddhist, Jain, Parsi and several others.

Pakistan is 97 percent Muslim (split about

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