by Costas Chryanthou

Created on: March 29, 2008

Labour are the existing party of government. They have enjoyed a majority of seats in the House of Commons the lower chamber of elected members of parliament since the 2nd May 1997.

Predicting election results is difficult to determine as the Conservative party were expected to win the 2005 general election in a number of polls. The fight between the 2 parties was tighter and closer than most had thought. Therefore in predicting a general election outcome is difficult to make. What is certain is that the Liberal Democrats are in effect a much smaller third political party in England. This in said means that this is a straight fight betweeen the Conservative and Labour party.

When does the election take place. Certainly Prime Minister Gordon Brown has refused calls for a quick general election.

A winning party needs a minimum of 326 seats in the House of Commons for an absolute majority. 10 Labour MPs lost their jobs due to constituency changes. Labour won 347, Conservatives won 208 seats and the Lib Democrats 66 seats. Using these numbers it is easy to suggest a quite easy victory for Labour.

However like with predicting anything in life in practise does not come that easy. There are a number of factors that i will briefly mention.

The British Economy. The UK has enjoyed a good rate of economic growth over the past 12 years. There are suggestions however that times of changing due to the US led credit crisis, is feeding itself into the UK and is beginning to hurt other European and International countries. The collapse of the Northern Rock along with nationalisation of the bank will put pressure on finances of the UK. The employment situation is strong, though as with anything else in life when government spending starts reducing if it does, then jobs will follow suit. However unless economic conditions completely deteriorate, then Labour still have that added advantage of lowering taxes when it matters, (usually just before the election).

Crime/Law and Order. The crime situation has not really made a lasting significant effect over the past 4 years to suggest any improvement or decline in my opinion.

Other quick failures of the UK government have been the failings of the child support agency, the information loss debacle of the revenue and customs in misplacing and mishandling data of people's claim details along with personal data. Certainly the Labour party are at risk again of poor management of information of Millions of UK citizens.

EU immigration. The rise of foreign nationals is seen as a contentious issue with many voters who will have seen more foreign citizens gaining entry for British residency, and in turn claiming benefits and taking jobs away from British people.

In suggesting that Conservatives will win the election is not easy. The Tories do indeed have a more together seemingly more united appearance under David Cameron. I would find it hard to beleive that in London areas that the Conservatives will do well. Here is there own achilles heel. Also after Conservative governments that have not succeeded overall in making improvements to a number of areas including the economy, the health service, the schools. I think it is easy to remember Margaret Thatcher and John Major's Prime Ministerial reign's the nation would quickly remember how tough and bad conditions in England were back in those days. Though i still beleive it is a strong possibility the Conservative party will narrow the gap, however at this moment in time i doubt that the Tories are in a great position overall to stop a 4th straight victory for Labour.

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