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pressure is being put on meteorologists to predict up to five days out because of the evacuation of residents from the target area. History has proven that accuracy in meteorology is imperative. As an example of what meteorology is trying to prevent we can look at the unprepared residents of Galveston, Texas in September 1900 when a massive hurricane struck with little to no warning taken the lives upwards of 8000 people.

When researchers present their predictions to the people they use a spaghetti model. This is a series of tracks for an incoming hurricane and the probabilities of landfall. Using this model there is a cone of predicted landfall error. First the "NHC runs the official track of each hurricane and that should be used to protect your life and property" (House). Then they list tracks according to early-cycle, late-cycle and global tracks. The end result is what you see on the 6:00pm news. The "NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; the average track forecast errors in recent years was used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days and for days 4 and 5. The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts" (Tropical Storm EPSILON).

One of the most instrumental developments in hurricane tracking/predicting technology is the invention of hurricane satellites. Before satellites were put in space, planes were the best and sometimes only source of information about a hurricane's position and intensity. However, "because the tropical and subtropical regions that spawn hurricanes consist of enormous areas of open ocean, conventional observations are limited" (Lutgens and Tarbuck p329) and meteorological satellites are required to cover such extensive areas. With the use of satellites weather patterns can be tracked long before the actual development of a cyclone. The only downfall of the satellite system is that "wind speed estimates can be off by tens of kilometers per hour and this makes it impossible to determine with accuracy detailed structural characteristics" (Lutgens and Tarbuck p329).

Even though we use satellites to predict and track weather patterns forecasters still rely on hurricane hunters or aircraft reconnaissance to physically go out into the hurricane and report back more accurate and detailed information from the heart of the storm. One group

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