by David Thill

Created on: March 19, 2008

Minority governments are always a test of skill, timing, and the ability to compromise. They generally do not last long, and often accomplish little as any legislation requires the consent, or at least the passive acceptance, of an opposition party.

Against the standard of previous minority governments, Stephen Harper's term has been relatively successful, most especially in its longevity. Most Canadian minority governments fall within two years, while Harper has been governing for well over two years. Although this is more of a testament to the weakness of the opposition, the Harper government has been careful to stick as close to the middle of the political spectrum as possible to defuse the fears of urban Canadians at Mr. Harper's perceived social conservatism.

The Harper government is 30 seats short of a majority, and thus any one of the opposition parties is capable of defeating the government on a confidence motion. Harper has been constrained to only that legislation with the broadest possible political support, and has gone far out of his way to avoid irreparably alienating any of his opponents.

One potentially explosive issue which Mr. Harper dodged rather adroitly was the perennial Quebec sovereignty debate. A Bloc Quebecois motion (of dubious constitutional import, but emotionally powerful and politically disastrous) to recognize Quebec as a "nation" was expected to be tabled in the House. Harper outmaneuvered the Bloc by tabling his own motion, recognizing the "Quebecois as a nation within a united Canada." Confronted with half a loaf, even the Bloc was forced to vote in favor of the motion, defusing the issue for at least the current Parliament.

Domestic policy under the Harper government has otherwise been mildly populist: reductions in the long-reviled GST (federal sales tax), tax decreases for middle class families, and other minor changes. There remains broad support across the entire political spectrum for the ongoing fiscal surpluses run by a succession of Liberal and Conservative governments, and the Harper Government has avoided the risk of falling by tabling conservative budgets including little that is especially new or controversial.

Internationally, the Harper government has continued to support the ongoing mission to Afghanistan, and despite a mounting toll of Canadian losses in the region, the opposition has not been able to generate any real momentum behind the idea of pulling out, or managed to attach much blame to the Conservatives for the death of Canadian soldiers abroad. Relations with the United States, Canada's most important international ally, have been mildly strained by disputes over Arctic sovereignty and trade. Although Prime Minister Harper and President Bush are viewed, in Canada, as falling in the same conservative area of the political spectrum, the upcoming American Presidential election, and an apparent groundswell in anti-trade/isolationist feeling in the US, have served overall to sideline the relationship. The Harper government has neither benefited, nor been harmed, by the relationship.

The Canadian electorate granted the Conservatives a minority government with the idea of testing them out and seeing how they perform with the other parties to keep an eye on them. Despite a competent, uncontroversial and relatively successful term in office, opinion polls do not indicate that the Conservatives are in the popularity range to win a majority should Canadians head to the polls today. Voters may not feel that they have seen the "real" Conservative government, as the past two years have really been a period of compromise across all of the Parliamentary parties.

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