Convention Superdelegates must decide what it means to be a Democrat

Forty years ago on a hot August day, all hell broke loose in Chicago's International Amphitheater, host of the Democratic National Convention of 1968. The nation was at war in Vietnam, some twenty thousand young men having died in action. Mayor Richard Daley had given police "shoot to kill" orders, though protesters were miles away from the convention floor. Delegates selected Vice President Hubert Humphrey over Senator Eugene McCarthy despite Humphrey never having won nor entered a single primary. The result dismayed liberals, shocked the world and led to Nixon's commanding victory in the electoral college.

Though the prospects of a major media frenzy has political junkies drooling, the nation in 2008 is in an entirely different place than that of 1968. We are still a nation at war, but the enemy is more illusive than North Vietnam. Al-Qaeda has not attacked inside the U.S. since September 11, 2001. Death and destruction in Iraq seem remote for most Americans. The casualty rates have fallen, in large part due to the troop surge. Barack Obama versus Hillary Clinton does bring a racial dimension to the Democratic contest, but it is nowhere near as intense as the assassination of Martin Luther King. The United States is more prosperous and secure in 2008 than it was four decades ago.

Even if Senators Obama and Clinton are still battling for the top prize in Denver, the site of the 2008 convention, it will be a more amicable affair than 1968 Chicago. The high-pressure cajoling that Lyndon Johnson was masterful at will be targeted at a few key super delegates, a great many of whom have already made thier intentions known. The prospect of super delegates abandoning commitments and swinging to one candidate or another is unlikely. This would only happen if one of the candidates has a large delegate lead coupled with commanding popular vote victories in a majority of competing states. Recent contests in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi show what little chance this scenario has. Of the large states, only Pennsylvania has not yet voted, and neither candidate is strong enough to win by double digits. This means that the delegates will be shared roughly equally, even if Hillary tops Obama by eight or nine points, as was true in Ohio. In Texas, Sen. Clinton bested Sen. Obama by 51 to 47 percentage points, yet both took exactly ninety-two delegates. This mixed result by Senator Clinton was called a victory by the national media, but political insiders know that far more important is what John Edwards chooses to do with his twenty-six pledged delegates. It would be the ultimate irony if it was one man and not one state who swings the nomination.

In an era where party contests are wrapped up long before national conventions meet, they have become as sordid as they are ritualistic. Unless there is a startling key note speaker, few Americans pay attention to a coronation that almost always takes occurs mid-summer. Democrats will be nervous at the thought of king makers selecting a president for the people, but at the very least events will be calmer than the infamous spectacle of Chicago in 1968.

Learn more about this author, Luiz Bravim.
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