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from the original risk groups into the general population via sexual transmission of HIV.

Actual Result In the United States and Europe, AIDS has remained substantially in the original risk groups - intravenous drug users and male homosexuals.

Prediction 2. Health care workers would contract AIDS (not just HIV) from their patients; scientists from propagating HIV; and prostitutes from their clients.

Actual Result None of these predictions have happened.

Prediction 3. 150 chimpanzees that were experimentally inoculated with HIV, and 15,000 American hemophiliacs who received the HIV virus through transfusions before 1984 would develop AIDS.

Actual Result No HIV-infected chimpanzee has developed AIDS. The median age of hemophiliacs has doubled from eleven years in the 1970s to twenty-six years in 1986.

Prediction 4. HIV would cause predictable diseases.

Actual Result None of the thirty AIDS diseases is predictable.

Prediction 5. HIV would cause the same pattern of diseases in all people.

Actual Result Kaposi's sarcoma (a form of cancer) is almost exclusively restricted to male homosexuals. Pneumonia is almost the only AIDS disease of hemophiliacs. Tuberculosis is typical of intravenous drug users.

Prediction 6. AIDS would follow within weeks after HIV infection, before anti-HIV immunity - as is the case with all other virus diseases.

Actual Result AIDS occurs - if at all - an average of ten years after HIV infection.

Prediction 7. All AIDS diseases would result from HIV-mediated immunodeficiency.

Actual Result In the United States, only about sixty percent of AIDS cases are immunodeficiency diseases: pneumonia, candidiasis, mycobacterial (includes tuberculosis), cytomegalovirus, toxoplasmosis, and herpes virus. The remaining forty percent are non-immunodeficiency diseases: wasting disease, Kaposi's sarcoma, dementia, and lymphoma.

Prediction 8. All AIDS diseases result from HIV.

Actual Result Over four thousand HIV-free AIDS cases have been diagnosed, mostly in AIDS risk groups in the United States and Europe.

Prediction 9. AIDS will follow the dissemination of HIV.

Actual Result The number of United States HIV carriers has remained approximately one million since 1984, whereas the number of AIDS cases has risen from a few hundred in 1981 to over 60,000 in 1993. The curves are completely uncorrelated.

Peter H. Duesberg of the Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology at the University of California at Berkeley is the world-famous discoverer of retro-viral oncogenes,

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