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US Elections 2008: Predicting March 4 Democratic primary results in Ohio

this has been far less about a Clinton collapse and far more about a meteoric rise to the top by Obama.

The endorsements that originally favored Clinton by a wide margin are, as with every other aspect of this election, shifting to Obama. Clinton enjoyed early endorsements by Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones. Yet, as the tide turned, so have the endorsements. Two major Ohio newspapers, the Dayton Daily News and the Akron Beacon made conflicting endorsements, with the former endorsing Obama and the latter supporting Clinton. The mayors of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati have each endorsed Obama. Most recently, on a more national level, Obama received the support of former presidential candidate and current Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd.

When Ohio votes on March 4, the result will likely be a fairly close split between Senators Obama and Clinton. Regardless of who wins the state, any victory by a small margin will end up meaning a virtual split of Ohio's delegates. This would bode best for Obama as he already has a somewhat significant lead in pledged delegates. A loss or a close victory Clinton would be devastating to her ability to keep her campaign afloat.

The most recent survey to date, a Rasmussen poll on February 25, showed Clinton's once monstrous lead in Ohio dwindle to just five percent. With seven more days until the primary, Obama has plenty of time to eliminate what little deficit remains. The likely result, as we have been seeing throughout the country, will be a last minute win for Obama, and with it, the Democratic nomination.

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