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Ohio is used to finding itself in the limelight during the November elections, but rarely does the state come into play in the nomination process. The 2008 Democratic race between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is the exception to this rule. With the candidates sitting within 152 delegates of each other, the 141 pledged delegates at stake in Ohio will prove pivotal. They could be responsible for either solidifying the nomination for Obama, or reinvigorating the Clinton campaign.
In early polls, Clinton held a huge lead in Ohio. A Quinnipiac University poll in October, 2007, showed Clinton receiving 47 percent of Democratic support in Ohio; her next closest competitor, Obama, drew just 19 percent support. After the Super Tuesday primaries, with just the two candidates remaining in the race, the Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton maintaining her twenty point lead. In late February, however, with Obama demonstrating remarkable momentum throughout the country, the Quinnipiac poll showed Obama closing the gap in Ohio, leaving Clinton with an eleven point lead.
The deciding issue in Ohio seemingly always comes down to the economy. In a recent opinion poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati, 41 percent of Democratic voters said that jobs and the economy is their most pressing concern; this was the number one answer. Coming in second was health care with 25 percent of Ohio Democrats naming it as their biggest issue. These concerns reflect the trend that money has become ridiculously tight for the people of Ohio as the state has seen nearly a quarter of a million jobs disappear during the Bush presidency.
Now that her record on free trade is facing increased scrutiny, Clinton is losing favorability rapidly. She has been speaking out against NAFTA, but while in the Senate, she has consistently voted in favor of it. Having lost ten points in Ohio in as many days does not bode well for Clinton with nearly two weeks left until the day of the primary. Despite her early support from working class voters, the recent weeks have seen them gradually shift to Obama.
Further, Clinton's overall ability to attract voters is fading. At the national level, she has gone from being the odds on favorite to win the nomination, to getting annihilated. The most recent poll conducted by CBS showed Obama taking 54 percent support while Clinton polled at just 38 percent. Compare that to her twenty point lead in November, 2007, and her collapse becomes even more astounding. However,
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US Elections 2008: Predicting March 4 Democratic primary results in Ohio
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