by Bob Schmidt

Created on: February 22, 2008   Last Updated: March 19, 2008

No party runs for president in the US, individuals do. They are the nominees of political parties, and usually Democrats or Republicans. Independent candidates can also run for president, but at a great disadvantage without major political party backing.

To the issue of which party representative may win the general election this year in the United States, it is anyone's guess. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are still in a close battle for supremacy of the Democratic Party, while John McCain is surely going to be the Republican's representative.

Between Obama, and Clinton, the campaign has seen Hillary lose a once dominating lead for the nomination. Obama has out-campaigned her to achieve momentum that will be difficult to stop. His narrow lead could widen to insurmountable numbers if he wins the upcoming primary elections in Texas, and Ohio. These states have long been considered to be Hillary's firewall due to the high population of Hispanics. Should their support diminish, her aspirations to become the first woman president will be all but over.

Meanwhile, John McCain has the luxury of preparing for his eventual opponent in the general election. He will undoubtedly be refining his message, and honing in on the perceived deficiencies of either opponent the Democrats offer as their candidate. He will have consolidated his support, and be resting for the upcoming battles when the race has its final nominees.

The Democrats probably have a slight advantage at this point in time. The excitement of the competition between Clinton and Obama has motivated Democrats to get out and support their favorite candidate. If they unify behind the eventual winner of their party, they should be favored in the general election.

There is one big qualifier to this advantage, and that is the potential for unexpected events leading American voters down a different path than that which exists today. If anything occurs that reminds voters of the role of the Commander in Chief aspect of the next president, the Republicans have a great advantage. There is no way that Senator McCain's qualifications to be an effective Commander in Chief can be seen as inferior to Senator Obama, or Senator Clinton.

This election has the potential to go any direction, lead by future events that are impossible to predict. The world is a pretty dangerous place, and any flare-ups will favor the Republicans chances for winning. As usual, the unknown will probably be the determining factor. I'd rather guess this year's winner of the World Series.

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