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Within the Democratic Party, Barack Obama does very well with voters 45 and younger, both men and women. Many of these voters are new voters. Hillary Clinton is favored by the working class, the traditional base of the Democratic Party. She's also strong with older white women voters. Along racial lines Obama does better with blacks than Clinton whereas she does better with Hispanics than he does. A divide exists between black and white voters especially in the south where 3 out 4 black voters support Obama and 3 and 4 white voters support Clinton. This trend isn't as pronounced in other regions of the US. The urban and rural votes are split between Clinton and Obama. He also seems to attract more affluent voters. Basically there are about the same number of Clinton supporters as there are Obama supporters. This is seen with the two candidates being separated by about 50 delegates, Obama 1,262 and Clinton having 1,213.

But, in the general election Obama would probably have the support of the traditional Democratic base. But, there's some doubt when race might place a part. Will white voters especially in the south support a black candidate? On the other hand since South Carolina neither candidate has made race an issue. Additionally Obama has won some states with small black populations such as Alaska and Idaho. It's more uncertain what the Hispanics would do. This is where having a Hispanic running mate like Bill Richardson would help.

In spite of Hillary Clinton having more experience, Barack Obama is the stronger Democratic candidate. The Republicans have lots of antipathy toward Hillary Clinton. Obama doesn't have that baggage. Also the Republicans aren't sure yet how to deal with Obama. He would garner more independent votes than Clinton in the general election against John McCain. However, the real litmus test is how each candidate might do in the general election against John McCain. In the past 2 weeks Real Clear Politics has gathered results from 7 different polls. Obama passes this test with an average 3.2% victory over McCain but Clinton loses by an average of 2% to McCain. This suggests that some of the voters Obama has attracted might not vote if Clinton is the candidate. They might lose their enthusiasm. None of the 7 polls have Clinton faring better than Obama.

Another advantage Barack Obama has is that his campaign is gaining momentum. Hillary Clinton's campaign on the other hand has been pretty much static. Last fall she had a substantial lead but now in February Obama has a slight lead. This would also offset McCain's own momentum.

http://www.cnn.com/EL ECTION/2008/
McCain vs. Clinton, McCain vs. Obama, Steve Benen, The Carpetbagger Report, 2/11/2008.
http://www.thecarpet baggerreport.com/archives/1454 9.html
McCain vs. Clinton vs. Obama, Carolyn Lochhead, SF Chronicle, 2/11/2008
http://www.sfgate.com /cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?b logid=14&entry_id=24164

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