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Only time will tell if retiring baby boomers will cause a labor shortage. There are far too many variables, and we have no way of knowing when individuals in this group will retire. Baby boomers are those who were born after WWII, generally between 1946 and 1964. That's a span of almost 20 years and it's unlikely that everyone born during that time will retire the minute they're eligible to collect Social Security.
Some will continue working past their retirement dates. We're healthier, more energetic, and more involved than past generations. When my mother retired, she was 62 and could not wait to quit and never have to work again. That was in 1965. When I retired, it was because I was bored and ready to start a new career. I believe that today there are more people like me than like my mother.
There's another group who will continue to work because they must. Today, the cost of even a moderately priced apartment exceeds the average SS check. My SS payment is "way above average," according to the woman who signed me up and provided an estimate of my payments. But even my much larger than average check covers only the rent and utilities on a decent apartment, the car payment, insurance, and enough groceries to get by on.
Of course, there are others who will retire long before they are eligible: they have the means to maintain their life styles and the SS check will just be a bonus, whenever it starts. The number of millionaires is growing by leaps and bounds, and many of them have either already left the workplace, or will whenever they feel like it. Chances are they won't be interested in the kind of jobs most of us will want and need, if they choose to work at all.
I don't see a mass exodus from the workplace, at least not a voluntary one. With today's economy in or very close to a recession with no hope of a quick turn-around, we are already seeing massive layoffs. Just in yesterday evening's online New York Times, I read that Morgan Stanley is cutting 1,000 jobs; GM, which lost $722 million in the 4th quarter of 2007, is offering buyouts to 74,000 employees; and last month Ford made a similar offer to 54,000 workers.
Frequently, more mature workers are the most expensive and, in case of layoffs, are offered these packages in exchange for taking early retirement. There's still plenty of age discrimination in the workplace, but I think it is at least partly due to the fact that white collar workers can be a lot more expensive to keep around than fresh-out-of-college
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