5 of 57

Write now Article Tools

MY PREDICTION:

Other than for the fact that there is no Vice President seeking to go for the President's post, the 2008 US Election very much is a case of history repeating itself. The 1988 US Elections easily come to mind.

The Reagan government had just governed for 8 years, hyping the threat of Cold War intrigues due to Reagan's outspokenness and little wavering in his beliefs. Just like Bush, his last days in power had him as a lameduck President; the Iran-Contra affair, economic recession and numerous 'interventions' in other countries had him losing his ratings. Just like Bush.

In 1986 the Democrats swept into a majority in Senate, gaining control of the House due to this factors. Sounds familiar?

The Democrats even had an Obama in Mario Cuomo who gave a rousing keynote speech at the 1984 Democratic Convention. Unlike Obama though, Mario Cuomo opted out of the race.

However the Democrats threw away the chance to sweep into White House. First, from the word go there were no frontrunners, anyone could win it. Theirs was a mixture of intense infighting among the contenders and the sudden introduction of sudden radical candidates to the voters.

For example, Al Gore ran negative ads against Gephardt, Dukakis ripped into Joe Biden, these ended up discrediting candidates and weakening the Democrats before the Elections. Do the exchanges, a couple of weeks back, between Obama and Clinton ring a bell?

In Jesse Jackson, Americans would have had their first Black president, Al Gore would have been the youngest and Patricia Schroeder the first woman president. All these would have been too much for the voter. American voters are, on average more conservative than their European counterparts. I mean, the fact that Mitt Romney is a Mormon was an issue this year. Forget that business of "Change v. Experience"; the Bible Belt has kept Bush Jr. in power for eight years, despite obvious weaknesses.

The Republicans had primaries too but they never weakened the party position. Like McCain, Bush Senior built up momentum, having finished third in one of the states at the beginning, and by the end he was facing a wounded Democratic Party.

So is 2008 going to be a repeat of 1988? Are the American voters going to return another Republican administration despite being dissatisfied with the current one? Largely, yes. The fact that there is no clear frontrunner among the Democrats while McCain is almost confirmed for the Republicans is worrying.

You see, the Democrats have to settle on their

• 1
• 2
• next page >>

Add your voice

Know something about Predicting the winner of the 2008 U.S. presidential election?
We want to hear your view. Write now!