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Predicting the winner of the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Obama brings to the campaign? Even Clinton has a reasonable chance of taking 50% of the middle ground, and she doesn't need to abandon her base.

Perhaps choosing Mike Huckabee as a running mate would recapture the base for McCain. But picking such a folksy far-far right running mate would be yet another trade off for McCain. He must be feeling the pressure from many inside the party, but he's still holding out. Principles for votes, a sacrifice that too many politicians are ready to make.

McCain will loose because the party picked the wrong nominee. They are facing two incredibly strong Democratic nominees, both bursting with energy and enthusiasm, and they picked granddad.

We like Granddad, but he smells funny and sometimes he doesn't make sense, especially when he gets going on economic policy. That's granddad', we say, we love him, but we're not going to vote for him.'

Rudy Giuliani would have had a chance, he had energy and across the board appeal. The 9/11 America's Mayor' tag should have helped him with the base, but it's been battered by overuse. With the right strategy and the right VP he could have taken the fight to the Democrats. He might not have won, but he'd be left closer to the finish line, Mc Cain will be crawling there.

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