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Eight months out with the candidates yet to be confirmed, some analysts would would say it's perhaps a bit too early to call the 2008 US Presidential Election.

Not so.

Those pesky analysts are caught up in polls and primaries because it's what they're paid for. After all, if a pundit did say something concrete, they'd be out of a job for the next eight months.

I can call it and I'll call it right now.

The next person to step into the presidential PJs will be a Democrat, more than likely a black male one. Don't get me wrong, Hillary has plenty of fight left in her, but Barack Obama has the momentum and charisma that make him the one to beat. In the general election and the primaries.

If Obama wins the nomination his victory in the general will be sweeping. Most of the country agrees with him on most of the issues, and his charisma can get them to the booths. He can motivate Democrats to vote for him, he can motivate independents to vote for him and, above all, he can motivate Republicans to vote for him.

Contrasted with Obama's energy republican John McCain will look like a twitching body.

If Hillary pulls it off and wins the nomination she still has a good chance in the general, but the margin will be narrow. She'll motivate the democratic base and maybe independents, but it's difficult to imagine her reaching too far into republican territory. She'll win because she's good politician and because McCain will loose.

Hardcore conservatives are disillusioned with Bush, they heard the sizzling but Bush never brought home home the bacon. Nothing substantial on abortion or tax reform, an economy near in recession and a deficit so big you have to watch you don't fall in. He was a lame and somewhat baffled looking duck the moment he stepped into office.

He was the feel-good president. You roll over to him in the morning and he tells you what you want to hear, tells you that he's working hard on, you know, like, the issues - but he spends the rest of the day playing fetch with Barney in his dad's back yard.

Bush failed the hardline conservatives, but John McCain won't even try. With liberal views on abortion and gay marriage, conservatives need a reason to get out and vote for him. It's the moderate's trade off, loosing some of the base in an attempt to capture the middle ground. It's a smart move and a step forward for the Republican Party, but it won't win them the general.

Why would independents vote for an old moderate republican when they can

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