by Bob Schmidt

Created on: February 08, 2008   Last Updated: March 19, 2008

Hillary struggles while McCain cruises. As should have been expected, the unexpected has surfaced in the primary elections. Just a few months ago, McCain was left for dead on the Republican side, and Clinton was assumed to be marching towards a coronation. Now, each is looking at the opposite situation.

Surprises on Super Tuesday:

Republicans watched as Mike Huckabee showed surprising strength in the south, literally knocking Mitt Romney out of the race. Despite a healthy campaign chest of riches, Romney could not overcome Huckabee's appeal to conservatives. Huckabee's grassroots wins, funded by nickels and dimes were the surprise of Super Tuesday.

Democrats watched a tug-o-war between Clinton and Obama. While Clinton won the big states, New York and California; Obama won more states overall and apparently won the delegate count from Tuesday evening. While that point is disputed to this moment, one thing is sure; the race is essentially a tie. The surprise of the moment is Hillary Clinton's disclosure that she had to dig into her personal money to the tune of 5 million dollars to limp through the Super Tuesday event.

Doing the math

On the Republican side, the math is simple. With Romney having suspended his campaign, only Huckabee remains to stop McCain from being the nominee. Realistically, that is not going to happen. Huckabee would have to win more than 80% of the remaining delegates for a victory. That would be the political equivalent of an "act of God", which must be the very reason that Huckabee goes forth.

The Democrats have a problem. Due to the existing rules of their party regarding nominating a candidate, their race will go all the way to the convention for a final decision. The only way that might not happen would be if one cedes to the other beforehand. There is only one scenario under which that might happen. Hillary is strapped for cash, and Obama isn't. She must find new money sources, but can she?

New Political Landscape

Both parties are looking at a changed political landscape. The Republicans have the luxury of taking the next few months to consolidate their support behind one candidate, John McCain. Fences can be mended, and preparations for battling the Democrats can begin in earnest. With a replenished war-chest, and unified support, the Republicans will be more than ready for the general election campaign.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Democrats will be battling for control of the party. Obama will be fighting Clinton for control of the Democratic Party, and it will probably get ugly. The effects of an ugly battle could hurt their ability to unify behind the eventual winner in time to fight the Republicans successfully.

It will be fascinating to watch these next few months unfold. Political parties are living, breathing entities that are continually changing. As the Republicans move a bit more to the middle philosophically with McCain, the Democrats may be abandoning their traditional party favorite in favor of the new guy in town, Barack Obama. Political junkies had better stock up on popcorn, and soda water for the show that has only just begun. This one is a long way from being over.

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