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This is one instance in which I really hope I'm wrong.

However, I doubt that Natalee Holloway's killer will ever reside behind Aruban bars. Here are six reasons why:

1. Natalee disappeared on May 30, 2005, nearly three years ago. Despite fairly steady press for much of this time, the murder remains unsolved. Leads and arrests pop up now and again. However, they end up going nowhere. Despite the differences between the U.S. and Aruban criminal justice systems that journalists attempt to repeatedly describe in detail, three years is a very long time. It's too long a time for Natalee's family and friends to keep up the pressure on Aruban officials to continue or reopen any investigation even if the Arubans were so inclined.

2. Politics plays a huge role in how this case is handled. At various times, Joran van der Sloot has been named a suspect in the Holloway girl's disappearance and has admitted spending time with her. After the recent publicity regarding a tape in which he allegedly discussed her death and subsequent disposal of the body, he's in the limelight again. However, the fact remains that his father is an Aruban judge. Based on that fact alone, if he killed the teenager, he will probably get away with it. It's a small island.

3. Tourism is also a major factor. Having a convicted killer of an American teenager on vacation locked up on your island hardly increases the tourist trade. As crass as it sounds, hosting a major unsolved mystery on your doorstep is a bit more intriguing. It's a lot like advertising a haunted house.

4. The U.S. Government can do little to exert any more pressure on Aruban officials. Hundreds of telephone calls have been made. Emails have been sent. Can you think of many products Americans could boycott in our stores to make a point? I can't.

5. The tally is already too high. Millions of dollars have been spent trying to unravel what happened. Should a person's life have a price tag? I hardly think so. But the donors have already given tons of money, and the volunteers who searched and searched again have gone home. Natalee's mother and stepfather have divorced.

6. People don't like to consider the circumstances if she's really alive. We immediately think of a slender blonde teenager spirited off the island to enter the white slave trade. It some respects, it's easier for most people to avoid exerting pressure to solve the case. And as long as they settle for the status quo, there will be no killer behind bars.

I'm sure all of us would much prefer to have this one turn out like the Elizabeth Smart case. However, that's just unlikely.

Learn more about this author, Vonda Sines.
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