by Moe Zilla

Created on: February 03, 2008

Over 2.5 million viewers disappeared from the "big four" networks between the spring of 2006 and the spring of 2007. In April of 2007, NBC scored its lowest Nielsen ratings ever - and the next week, its ratings dropped even lower.

Where's everyone going? Here's some explanations.

* They're recording the shows. The Nielsen rating services estimates that over 20% of America's households have Tivo or some other personal video recorder. Yet for the most part, Nielsen's ratings undercount viewers who aren't watching a program as its broadcast.

* They're watching online. Over 50 shows are now available online. Interestingly, most networks have already found sponsors for the online versions. Viewers are unable to fast-forward through the ads online, which is presumably appealing to both advertisers and the networks. The writer's strike is an implicit recognition of this growing audience, with the writer's placing great importance on the future of online distribution.

* They're surfing the web. In 2005, Forrester Research discovered that households with broadband internet connections watch less TV - about two hours less each week. That was at a point when there was just 31 million households with broadband service, though last summer the number had more than tripled.

One studied actually theorized that young viewers were spending less time watching TV, preferring instead to play multiplayer online games like World of Warcraft, Second Life, and Habbo Hotel.

* They rented a movie. Thirty years ago, it was only possible to see a movie by driving to a theatre. VCRs made it possible to rent a movie and watch it any time, but it took NetFlix to ensure a never-ending stream of movies in your mailbox. NetFlix now has 7.3 million subscribers, most of which are presumably now spending about two hours for every movie that they rent. And NetFlix isn't the only option for online movies. Even Amazon is now offering movies online, and Comcast has over 10,000 "video on demand" titles for their cable subscribers.

* They rented a TV show. The networks have tried to compete by creating more movie-like programs. But this may not help their Nielsen ratings, since some viewers end up watching the show when it's released on DVD. iTunes has been allowing users to download TV shows well before their recent addition of downloadable movies - and they've racked up over 35.7 million subscribers.

All these explanations suggest one thing. The "missing" TV viewers are still watching something. They're just not watching in the ways that the networks expect!

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