by Saul Relative

Created on: January 26, 2008   Last Updated: July 02, 2008

Polls, depending upon which ones you look at, are showing Senator Barack Obama ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton by as many as 9 or 10 to 16 percentage points in South Carolina just hours before the polls open in that state's Democratic Primary. But the polls have been wrong before. They were wrong in Iowa. They were really wrong in New Hampshire.

The polls put Barack Obama well ahead. Why, when just a few short months ago, Hillary Clinton led the polls? Simply because Obama has gained the confidence of the African-American electorate, something he did not have a few months ago. And some feel confident he could become the next president, also something they did not believe a few months ago. But that is what a victory in Iowa and an extremely strong showing in New Hampshire will get you - confidence.

John Edwards is a distant third but has picked up ground in the last week, rising as much as 9 percent, which still puts him behind Clinton by at least 11 %. According to a Mason-Dixon Poll, Obama leads with 38 %, Clinton with 30 %, and Edwards with 19 %. Reuters/C-Span/Zogby has it 38, 25, 21 - in the same order. The latter gives Edwards more leverage and puts him and Clinton in a virtual tie. If Edwards pulls off a second-place finish, there could still be a chance for him to capture the nomination. But he has to do well in South Carolina, or so say the analysts.

I disagree. John Edwards could lose South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, February 5, do well enough in those elections to put himself in the lead (or a really close second) in this race. As long as he remains in the race, Edwards has a shot. Admittedly, it is a long shot, but with Clinton and Obama sniping at each other, Edwards has become the voice of reason in the Democratic Party. As he told David Letterman the other night, he now represents the "grown up" part of the Democratic Party. And he could be right. Saturday's primary will be a good indicator.

Democrats, in order to win the general election, have to start thinking with their heads instead of with their hearts. A woman or an African-American in the White House sounds great and would be a great thing to see, but it probably will not happen if John McCain is the Republicans choice. John Edwards is probably the only Democrat who can beat McCain in the general election (that is assuming that McCain wins the Republican nomination and, given the mood of the country, if the Republicans want to win in the fall, he will be their candidate). Clinton cannot beat McCain because she galvanizes Republicans. Too many of them simply hate her (and her husband). In fact, the only two choices the Democrats have now are Barack Obama and John Edwards. Barack Obama will also galvanize the Republicans, but for different reasons. One of them is race (and I'm not talking about voting against him because he's black, although that, unfortunately, will be a factor for some). Take a look at the CNN exit polls for South Carolina. There isn't even a 1 % showing for African-Americans or Latinos voting in the Republican Primary. There are considerably more white eleigible voters registered to vote all across the United States. If McCain gets the Republican nomination, not only will he get almost all of the registered Republicans, he'll also get most of the moderate and conservative Democrats as well if Clinton or Obama is nominated. Independents will split.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cannot beat those numbers.

But Edwards can.

Sources:

"South Carolina Democratic Primary," RealClearPolitics.com

"Exit Polls: South Carolina," CNNPolitics.com

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