by Moe Zilla

Created on: January 25, 2008   Last Updated: March 19, 2008

Barack Obama is a wonderful speaker, inspiring audiences with his message of hope. But is that enough? And would Republicans have been better off with a former TV actor, and the hope that he'd become as popular as Ronald Reagan?

For some in both parties, the popularity contest IS important, since their #1 issue is simply "electability." After eight years of on the sidelines of George Bush's presidency, Democrats want a candidate who can mobilize the party's base, attract independent voters, and even bring in new voters who haven't voted in previous elections. And their primary is creating that kind of excitement with the first female candidate and the first black candidate to achieve front-runner status. Now the Republicans need an equally popular candidate, just to preserve their own chances of winning the presidency!

But this means that it's not just a "popularity contest" - it's a strategy. This shrewd electoral tactic recognizes that there's a giant bundle of issue differences that separate one party from another. And for this reason, both parties want the most popular candidate they can find. What good does it do to support specific issues - if the candidate loses the election?

But even if a candidate is guaranteed to win, their popularity still matters. The Democrats currently control the U.S. Senate by exactly one vote. A Democratic president will face difficult enacting new legislation if the Republicans win control of the Senate. So an extremely popular candidate could help bring in more votes for those close Senate elections. The same calculation applies to races for the House of Representatives, and even the governorship of various states.

Some candidates may even change their position once they've been elected to a four-year term. (In 1968, President Nixon campaigned on a promise to end the war in Vietnam, and in 2000 George Bush promised he'd sign the Kyoto Treaty.) Ultimately the challenges they'll face - from terrorist attacks to worldwide recessions - are crises which require thoughtful responses and flexibility. Barack Obama was even criticized for taking one specific stance - that after his election he'd meet with Cuban president Fidel Castro. Hillary Clinton argued that a President should only agree to that meeting under certain circumstances, and to pre-announce that policy reduced U.S. leverage for negotiations.

A popular president will be able to lead effectively, knowing the American people will call their Congressmen to urge passage of the President's legislation. Presidential popularity is the solution for Congressional gridlock. So while issues are important, that's the very reason that people want a popular candidate.

To make sure those issues get addressed!

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