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John McCain Picks Up Steam?
January 21, 2008

The common perception in the media is that John McCain is in the midst of a political comeback of epoch proportions. A brief analysis of the field of candidates in the Republican primary calls that perception into question.

The top five candidates are: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. This field can be divided into two parts - the Social Conservatives and the Establishment Conservatives.

The Establishment Conservatives include Romney, McCain and Giuliani. Each has strengths and weaknesses in light of the Establishment Republican platform. Romney has successfully put out the perception that he is strong on taxes and immigration, but is vulnerable when his record on taxes in Massachusetts is called into question, along with his flip-flops on abortion. McCain is strong among veterans, but he has sided with liberals on immigration, and his co-authorship of Campaign Finance Reform still has many Republicans fuming. Giuliani runs on the perception that he is strong on terrorism, but his stance on immigration is as weak as McCain's, and his Pro-abortion stance causes many establishment Republicans to wince.

On the Social Conservative side, Fred Thompson comes off sounding like a Conservative, due to his southern charm and twang, but his willingness to leave a life issue - abortion - to the states has left many social Conservatives scratching their heads. He is also haunted by his vote on Impeachment, when he voted "not guilty" on the Perjury charge against Bill Clinton, even though he later wrote that he actually believed Clinton to be guilty. This shunning of Constitutional duty does great damage to the image Thompson tries to cultivate as a federalist.

Mike Huckabee has been saying and doing all the right things, and he has the most innovative proposal on taxes of any of the candidates. He has been consistent on the social issues that matter most to Conservative Republicans. Huckabee's Achilles heel has been his own base - Conservatives. He has suffered attacks from the conservative hit machine, Club for Growth, which have spun off into other attacks by candidates Romney and Thompson, along with noted Conservatives Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh, among others.

For example, the issue that draws the most flack is his record as Governor of Arkansas. He served as Governor for over ten years. During that time, the tax revenues increased by just over $500 Million. Candidates Romney and Thompson

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