by David Pipkin

Created on: January 21, 2008   Last Updated: July 02, 2008

Analyzing the Results of the Republican Primary in South Carolina
January 21, 2008

The analysis of the results from SC is that Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain were all vying for the same voters, and Fred Thompson siphoned votes from Mike Huckabee. This was not so much of an earned victory for McCain as much as it was one that was handed to him.

Romney left SC to go to Nevada to add a few points to his margin of victory there, rather than compete in SC. This was a strategic error on Romney's part, as a Huckabee victory in SC would have done him a lot more good than McCain's victory will. Had Romney fought harder in SC, he would have most certainly siphoned voters from McCain.

Rudy Giuliani decided to stay in Florida, rather than actively campaign in SC. Rudy needs to win Florida, but he may have actually hurt himself in that effort, as the McCain victory in SC has propelled him into the lead over Giuliani in Florida. A Huckabee win in SC would have helped Rudy in Florida.

Fred Thompson affected the results as well, as he reduced the margin of victory Huckabee had amongst Conservatives. Without Thompson, instead of 7-point margins, Huckabee likely would have had nearly double that. This, too, helped McCain.

The result? McCain, by 3 points.

The Conservative base of the Republican Party is grinding its teeth. We are all in agreement that it should be anybody but McCain, with Rudy a close second, but there is deep division between the remaining choices.

If the dead weight can be removed from this race, getting it down to Huckabee, Romney and McCain, we could see a much different story in states that hold truly Republican primaries (where only Republicans can vote).

Finally, after SC, Thompson showed his leadership skills by announcing that his next step was to go visit his mother. How Presidential. When he does finally pull out, don't be surprised to see him endorse McCain.

Thompson's supporters have actually been duped into believing he is a "true Conservative." This endorsement, if it comes, will shock his base, and they will scatter.

McCain will benefit somewhat, but Huckabee may see the biggest bounce, as he and Thompson were actually vying for many of the same voters - Social Conservatives.

At this point, the only reason Thompson would stay in the race would be out of a desire to keep Huckabee out of the front spot. His dislike of Huckabee is blatantly obvious, but he has no chance of winning the nomination. His speech in South Carolina resembled more of a wake than a campaign rally.

A just result for a man who conducted a deceptive, dishonest and dishonorable campaign. Happy trails, Fred.

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