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Modern warfare is all about delivering effects to achieve measurable conditions. The faster it can be done the better. However, any nation that fought a war to a timetable rather than conditions on the ground would risk defeat or certainly severe unintended consequences. A timetable for US withdrawal without any reference to the situation within Iraq would be one of the worst mistakes in US history.

A timetable for troop withdrawal would embolden the insurgents and allow them to carry out detailed planning. Iran has told its militia groups in Iraq that the US must be seen to be defeated. A timetable for US withdrawal would allow the insurgents to stockpile weapons and train fighters so that attacks could be built up to a crescendo as the last US troops departed thereby allowing the insurgents to say they kicked the US out of Iraq. Casualties on both sides would almost certainly be the highest seen in Iraq so far but the insurgents know that every single US death is a propaganda victory. They would be prepared to take immense casualty rates themselves in order to achieve an increased number of US deaths. A timetable for withdrawal would lead to a blood bath on the scale of Vietnam.

Criminals, rival tribes and religious leaders from all sects would manoeuvre to be in position to exploit the inevitable power vacuum that would result from a US withdrawal. There is no way that even the best Iraqi troops and police could hope to replicate the security provided by 150,000 US troops. A declared timetable would allow all groups to calculate when the balance of security would tip in their favour. Iraq would become a patchwork of feudal warlords, criminal gangs and religious groupings bent on sectarian genocide. Iraq's neighbours would not be able to stand by and watch their fellow religious groupings in Iraq get slaughtered. Saudi Arabia would move to protect the minority Sunnis. This would force Iran to intervene to shore up the majority Shia population. The result would be an escalating regional war. Oil prices would sky rocket and the global economy would be severely affected.

Another huge problem would be from refugees. The vast majority of Iraq's population abhor violence and just want to raise their families and live their lives in peaceful conditions. A declared timetable for a US withdrawal would also be a countdown to anarchy. Refugees would pour out of Iraq as the withdrawal clock started ticking. Syria, Jordan and Iran would become inundated with millions upon millions of Iraqis fleeing the country ahead of the US withdrawal. These countries are already straining to deal with the current refugee crisis, more would be a humanitarian disaster.

A timetable for US withdrawal from Iraq would be a terrible mistake. As ever in conflict it would be the soldiers and ordinary civilians who would pay the price.

Learn more about this author, Nick Sawyer.
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