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There are two significant political comebacks on the cards for 2008. In the UK the Tories will gain further comebacks in the opinion polls, and by the end of 2008 be the sure favourites to win the next UK election. While in the US the Democrats will continue to gain ground on the Republicans and their current leader and again look favourites in the presidential polls.
The interesting aspect of both these comebacks is that they have both been realised not by what the parties in question have done, but what their opposition has done, or perhaps not done.
In the UK the Tories have got better at understanding and spouting what the voter wants to hear, such as Inheritance tax cuts. But the biggest thing in their favour is the way Gordon Brown and the Labour party have been handling these statements and this is all they have been so far. Instead of ignoring them and letting them fizzle out like the previous cabinet did they react, and without much thought. This can be demonstrated by the previous example of inheritance tax cuts. In the UK, despite the fact that less than ten percent of people will be affected by such a tax when they die it is a sore point with most people approaching late middle age. Because if they died tomorrow they would most likely be hit, but were they to live to an old age a good portion of their money is likely to be used up or at least to move any inheritance safely under the threshold. However, the Tories knew it bothered people and made a big announcement that if they came to power they would increase the threshold and reduce the inheritance tax bill. But, they failed to mention how. Nevertheless, Labour panicked and announced they would reduce inheritance tax by increasing capital gains tax, a tax that affects a lot more people. But aside from this the biggest problem was that the Labour government reacted, and this has continued on with Gordon Brown demonstrating how easily rattled he is. And this is not the image people were expecting of him, it was a surprise to learn that the Iron Chancellor has turned into the panicky Prime Minister.
The second contributing factor to the Tories eminent comeback is the Liberal Democrat party, the third party in the UK. When the Tories lost power to Tony Blair one contributing factor was that the Liberal Democrats had done a lot of good work raising their profile and successfully stealing votes in key Tory seats, seats that would never have become Labour. But, since the removal of Charles Kennedy from
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Top comeback predictions in politics for 2008
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