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Lucky

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As a key figure in the IRA said at the height of the attacks in the UK, "The British security forces have to be lucky all the time. We only have to get lucky once". It is impossible to prevent all terrorist attacks. There are too many variables and there are too many possible scenarios. Steps can be taken to minimize the possibilities, but without being able to get into peoples' minds, prevention is a game of luck.

We aren't safer, but authorities in some realms have made it harder for the terrorist attacks to happen. What this actually does is breed more intelligent attackers. And the more intelligent they become, the more devastating consequences they can deliver. These are not some two bit hoods looking for a punch up. Terrorists plan their attacks for months. It's like a challenge to pull it off. I have listened to criminals in the past. Putting drug addicts and thugs aside, criminals see it as a game. Being smarter than the authorities. They want to see if the can pull it off and get away with it. The more difficult the challenge the bigger the rush.

So yes, the authorities have made it more difficult, but for the terrorists this offers a greater reward. An attack requires greater planning, which in turn makes it more precise and harder to detect. More backup and contingency plans are developed. More diversions would be developed. Greater security does deter the "have a go" bombers but it will not provide a deterrent for the dedicated bomber.

Take airports for example. Pre-Lockerbie bombing (where 258 people were blown up mid air over Scotland in 1988) we went through the motions of security as a way of catching and flushing out hijackers. Our biggest fear was getting on a plane to Houston and winding up in Havana. After 1988 security was tightened as we realized that people would blow planes up. September 11, 2001, we learned that people are willing to kill themselves to blow the plane up. Security was tightened even further making traveling these days an unpleasant journey, but worth it providing we arrive to our destination safely. Post 9/11, airports seemed a pretty safe place. June 2007, seeing that security was getting so tough in airports, terrorists decided to drive a blazing Jeep Cherokee INTO Glasgow airport. There is a constant progression as to how the terrorists will get around security obstacles. And this is not recognized by the authorities until after it is attempted. I always have to take my shoes off these days when traveling through airport security, but I don't recall ever being requested to do this until after the shoe bomber Richard Reid attempted to blow up a plane by lighting his explosive filled shoes in January 2002.

It has been luck when the terrorists get "lucky" with their strike and it has been luck when their attempts are foiled. We will never be able to avert all the tragedies. Extra security does avoid some of the disasters but I can't say we are safer. Let's just hope that we get lucky more times than the terrorists do.

Learn more about this author, Travis Casey.
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