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Rudy Giuliani is lucky to be running in a Republican race marked by ambivalence and uncertainty, but is engaged in a substantial gamble which I do not believe will pan out. He's Mr. 9/11, and does not attempt to skirt around that title; he does everything within his power to reinforce it.

However, I don't believe that his campaign of fear is actually viable. He is unable to get any traction in the early primaries, and now has to deal with the possible resurrection of John McCain. John McCain has the potential to win the New Hampshire primary, which would alter the landscape of the GOP race substantially. Following his recent wave of endorsements from the Des Moines Register, Boston Globe, Joe Lieberman, and scores of retired military brass, a win in New Hampshire would remind the public who actually has the credentials to fight the war on terror and who is merely running a symbolic platform.

That being said, let us not forget about the rise of Huckabee. He's currently slated to win Iowa as well as South Carolina, which could give him enough of a bump to solidify his position in Florida, one of only two early primaries where Giuliani still enjoys a comfortable lead. If Huckabee's momentum carries over to Florida, Giuliani depends almost exclusively upon Michigan to pick up his first win. Even in Michigan he is still within striking distance by Mitt Romney, who will most likely be riding high from a New Hampshire victory.

Giuliani is in a trick box, as Huckabee and Romney will likely gain substantial momentum going into Michigan and Florida. If John McCain proves to be a serious contender after a good showing in New Hampshire, he will most likely pick up Giuliani's base looking for an electable Republican who will best fight the war on terror.

Giuliani faces a lot of challenges given the bad press he's been receiving and the primary schedule, but this race is completely up in the air. Super Tuesday will most likely decide his fate, but a rocky start could make February 5th irrelevant.

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