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Assessing Rudy Giuliani's chances for the 2008 Republican primaries

Although Giuliani is the front runner right now for the GOP nomination, I believe that will all change in a few short month's as the Republican faithful make their ways to the polls to select their parties nominee. Giuliani, even in late November is receiving an uncanny amount of positive attention from the media, conservative and liberal. This is understandable since Rudy is charismatic, a great fund raiser, and his heroic performance after 9/11 is the stuff Presidencies are built upon.

However, like-able or heroic, having Rudy as the GOP's candidate in 2008 would be a disaster that the core (conservative) base of the Republican Party would never recover from. Here's a short, but to-the-point primer on some of Rudy's many flaws and why he will be denied the nomination.

First, he is very pro-abortion. I find it impossible to believe that the core voters will ever nominate a candidate that has been as pro-abortion as Giuliani. This is about as likely as the Democratic base nominating a pro-lifer as the face of their party. Rudy has recently flip-flopped on partial birth abortion but as early as 1999 he did not support a ban on the procedure. Rudy's abortion stance is bad news for the conservative base who are pro-life or who are concerned about getting Anthony Scalia or Clarence Thomas' style judges on the Supreme Court.

Second, like McCain, Rudy is weak on illegal immigration. For example, under Rudy, New York City was an illegal alien sanctuary and "America's Mayor" actually sued the Federal Government in an effort to keep New York City employees from having to cooperate with the INS. If the base is looking for a McCain, Kennedy, Pelosi solution to illegal immigration than Giuliani is the GOP candidate to nominate.

Next, Giuliani is weak on a whole host of Conservative platforms such as gay marriage and Second Amendment rights. Whether it be supporting the Brady Bill, marching in gay pride parades or dressing in drag on Saturday Night Live, I must reiterate my earlier point that the base will not turn out for Rudy.

Finally, how electable is Rudy really? The media may give him positive coverage right now but what happens if he does win the nomination and runs head to head with Hilary? For all of Sen. Clinton's marital problems Rudy has just as many, if not more. His second marriage to Donna Hanover ended in a very ugly divorce with accusations flying everywhere and if you don't know the details now you will if Rudy secures the nomination. In a Clinton vs. Giuliani match-up be prepared for the most negative and personal Presidential campaign in American history. Also, Bush carried every Southern state in both 2000 and 2004 thanks to social conservatives who turned out in droves. Does Giuliani really think he will get the same turnout? I would say, no; and in fact Rudy will probably lose two or three Southern states.

In ending, despite all of his charisma and wonderful leadership he showed after 9/11, Rudy Giuliani is not what the GOP is looking for...a Reagan Republican. To the contrary, Giuliani is another Jim Jeffords, another Arlen Specter, another Olympia Snowe. Not the Republican that the base will support to be setting up shop at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Learn more about this author, Matthew Soo.
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