"Who will the neo-cons endorse for the 2008 elections?" The short answer is; it will be the winner of the national primaries, with emphasis on wins in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.

It is the responsibility of the delegates from each state to nominate the Presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention with votes as allocated in the primaries. The candidate who wins the most delegates in the primaries will receive the Presidential nomination.

Any 2008 endorsement prior to the Republican National Convention is superfluous and carries little weight. Let's rephrase the question, and ask, who will the likely Republican Presidential candidate be? Then we can formulate answers based on the polls.

IOWA CAUCUS, January 3, 2008

If you look at current and past polls, you see that Mitt Romney is leading in the crucial primaries. His lead is slender in the Iowa caucus, but he has a healthy lead in New Hampshire. As the Iowa delegates confer and make their final decisions, the Iowa race will reflect their choice.

Romney leads the polls, has good organization and his support is strong with 71 percent of those behind him saying he has their definite support. I predict that Romney will win the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2008.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY, January 22, 2008

It takes a strong candidate to win in both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary and Mitt Romney is the only candidate with the poll numbers to win both contests. Frankly, he is not my personal choice, but the polls are good indicators of how the vote will go.

If Romney wins both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary the other candidates are out of the race. That's how important these two contests are. If he only wins one of the two, the race is still on.

Romney is favored in New England where he has name recognition and good ground support. He's advertised heavily in New Hampshire and it seems to have paid off for him.

Margin of error is about 5 percent in the polls.

As of November 15, 2007, Mitt Romney leads in the NY/CBS polls with 27 percent followed by Mike Huckabee at 21 percent and Giuliani at 15 percent. (Poll Published in the New York Post on November 15, 2007.)

An Iowa poll (Nov. 10-14) shows Romney at 26 percent, Huckabee at 24 percent, Giuliani and Thompson at 11 percent, and McCain at 10 percent.

Ironically, the front-runner seems to be more established in the Republican Party than it is in the Democratic Party. Clinton, Edwards and Obama are running neck and neck in the Iowa caucus. Clinton leads in New Hampshire, but Iowa could change that.

While many of us might think the Presidential election is about ideology, name recognition and popularity it's more about strategy, organization and ground support.

I'm not saying that Romney will win, but all the numbers are lining up in his favor with the primaries starting in a few short weeks.

Source:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

Learn more about this author, Mona Gallagher.
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