In January, states will start to select delegates to be seated at the Democratic National Convention. It all begins with the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2008. Two contests are crucial, The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Candidates covet a win in these two primaries.

Current polls give us a glimpse of Barack Obama (Sen., IL) and his prospect of winning in Iowa. Let's face it, polls are more trustworthy than crystal balls and this is what we have at hand to gage a candidates prospects at this point in the race to the white house.

Eight candidates have entered the Democratic race, thus far. In Iowa, three of the candidates stand out from the rest of the field: Obama, Clinton and Edwards. They are running neck and neck as of Nov. 14 polls. The winner of this caucus will be thrust into the limelight as the front runner.

Obama has charisma, good organizational support, speaks well and exudes confidence. Celebrities have jumped on his bandwagon and he has strong financial support from various sources. People tend to like him and his message, but smear campaigns early on in his candidacy may have hurt his campaign. If he can turn that around, his chances are excellent.

IOWA CAUCUS

While it is too close to call, Obama's chances look very good. Separated by only a few percentage points in the latest polls, Obama's chances for winning Iowa are positive.

* Obama's chances of winning increase, if his base support can find and capture the independent and undecided vote. It is the independent vote that likely will swing the election to the eventual winner and Democrats and Republicans alike are scrambling for it.

* Obama's energy and drive along with his speaking ability enhance his appeal to the voter and could bring the younger generation out to vote for a commanding win. He is less polarized than Hillary Clinton and has more support strength behind him than John Edwards.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY

The New Hampshire primary is the next coveted prize by the leading candidates.It will take place on January 22, 2008. These two primaries have a great influence on the nation and the momentum of the U.S Presidential nomination. The candidates concentrate their efforts in winning in these two major contests.

* New Hampshire is up for grabs; maybe. Clinton leads Obama nearly 2 to 1, and she leads Edwards by 3 to 1 in the polls. Don't count Obama out yet. It looks like a runaway race for Clinton until you consider that forty-five percent of the voters are independent voters.

* Once again, the undecided independent vote will play an enormous role in deciding the winner of this match. The momentum could swing to any of the three leading candidates, but Clinton and Obama have the best opportunities in New Hampshire.

* Obama has organized strong support and is intent on getting out the vote that will push him to the top. Count on the youth vote to make a difference.

The rest of the nation's primaries will take place up until June of 2008, but the winner of the Democratic nomination will be known by February 5, 2008 when Super Tuesday rolls around. Twenty states will select 1,697 delegates to the national convention.

With his solid base of support and a bold strategy, Obama can win the primaries and the delegates needed to secure the Democratic Presidential nomination.

He has his work cut out for him.

Sources:

http://nytimes.com

http://Washingtonpost.com

Learn more about this author, Mona Gallagher.
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