Gordon Brown, for all his shortcomings, is an exceptionally fortunate politician. For a while, it seemed as though the Iron Chancellor was invincible; he dealt with floods, terrorists and foot-and-mouth disease all in his first week. More importantly though, unlike throughout the Blair years, media scandals are all speculation with little tribulation; the press has forgotten that he bottled' the election, despite the weeks of media coverage it merited.

Similarly, we saw peculiar headlines like "Beware the grip of the Euro monster" in The Times (normally a cool-headed publication) but after just a few days after Brown's decision not to call that election, he has also decided not to hold a referendum on the new European Union Treaty. Clearly he is too busy listening to the public to ask them what they think- perhaps justly so.

In the Labour manifesto, it clearly states that a referendum would be given on such a subject, however, conveniently for Blair in 2004, France voted non' to what was then the Constitution for the European Union, giving him an escape route. This time though, the document is back for a second time, in the guise of a treaty.'

The Conservatives are clamouring for a referendum, because they know how politically sensitive the issue is. A number of European politicians have gone on record, with rough estimates saying that the new treaty of 90% or even 95% identical to the rejected constitution, "they just took out a bit about flags and anthems". Realistically, the content is irrelevant. This is just a question of whether Europe' is bad.

In Prime Minister's Questions on October 17th, Gordon Brown bellowed, "we have managed to negotiate red lines in Europe which mean that the national interest is protected. Britain will decide on justice and home affairs; Britain will decide on foreign policy where it is multilateral; Britain will decide on social security; and Britain will decide on national security!" in response to David Cameron's pithy line, "the red lines are red herrings".

Nevertheless, Gordon Brown is set to win, since wars of attrition are his speciality. (This is a gentleman who waited for 10 years to become Prime Minister.) By permitting up to three months to ratify the new EU reform treaty, the Conservatives are likely to find a new issue on which to define themselves. It is also hoped that the Euro-sceptic movement will be slowed down by this gesture, as it is evidently too complex an issue to be decided by referendum.

Of course, the Conservatives do have a simple point they need to make; if the treaty is so complex that it requires three months of parliamentary scrutiny, the government really cannot substantiate the claim that insisting that it does not represent "fundamental change".

It seems like another own-goal for Cameron. I think it is unlikely that the public will want a government that is as anti-European as William Hague (the shadow foreign secretary) does. The red lines are Labour's red.

Learn more about this author, Hadleigh Roberts.
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