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Ron Paul has legions of devoted supporters who are active on the internet and show up in straw pole meetings across the country. He raised $5 million in campaign contributions during the last quarter, putting him in the lower ranks of the serious contenders. It is impressive that these have been many small donors. He has a long and consistent record of libertarian conservative positions. He is so principled that he has opted out of the pension plan for Congressmen.

None of the leading Republican candidates are considered to truly represent the right-wing, the traditional source of devoted grassroots efforts among Republicans. The mainstream leader, Rudy Guiliani, supports abortion rights and has a history of supporting rights for homosexual, both anathema for most conservatives. Mitt Romney has flip flopped on abortion and other social issues. John McCain has long been considered a maverick, despite his strong support for the war in Iraq. Fred Thompson has been more active in Hollywood than in politics in recent years.

If Ron Paul can break into the top three in any of the early primaries, he could get the mainstream press coverage that has held his campaign back. He has won most of the straw polls held so far and by extremely lop-sided margins. He inspires extreme devotion, because his stands are so principled. He does not seem to set positions based on polls, but rather based on the Constitution. It is easy to understand how he would excite people who are fed up with the traditional political system. However, the Republican party has not been known for inspiring fanatical support from untraditional sources, the young, the old and disaffected activists. In that sense, his candidacy is contrarian. It seeks to remake the Republican party by activism.

However, the early small primaries are known for independent-minded voters and surprises. If Ron Paul enthusiasts register many new republicans and many of the traditional republicans stay home or split votes, things could get unpredictable. Giuliani is not viewed as a traditional republican and if moderate republicans became disillusioned with him, Ron Paul could benefit.

Already, Ron Paul has done better than pundits expected, but he still does not get double digit support in national polls. In order for him to have a realistic chance, Ron Paul must find a way to break out from the group of second tier republicans. He needs to find ways to convert the groundswell of support on the internet and in straw polls to the

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