If all American troops and private security contractors (aka mercenaries) were summarily withdrawn from Iraq, many analysts believe that there would be a full fledged civil war. Many commentators believe that Iraq is already in de facto civil war, so the natural question is what would be the difference? Of course, the answer may change depending on whether or not diplomatic efforts result in a compromise power-sharing arrangement and/or peacekeepers to backfill for us.

The Arab areas of Iraq have become a militarized society. Since neither America's coalition nor Iraq's central government has had the troops to control the neighborhoods of Baghdad or other cities and towns or the countryside, the vacuum left by debaathification was filled by others. Each of the main Shi'a factions has a well-organized militia, essentially a private army. Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army is the largest and most powerful.1) Another is the Badr Brigades, linked to another Shiite party. There are also Sunni groups under arms, including al-Qaeda and others in opposition to al-Qaeda. There are also hybrid insurgencies. The truth is that nobody knows for sure how many insurgencies exists and their relative strength.

DIPLOMATIC PREPARATIONS FOR AN AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL -The Shi'a and Sunni
About 60% of Iraqis are Arab Shi'a, 20% Arab Sunni, 15% Kurds, 3% Assyrians and smaller numbers of Turkmen, Persians, Armenians and Marsh Arabs, etc. As Saddam was a Sunni, that group was used to being preeminent and some Sunnis believe they represent half the population. The Kurds have only had autonomy since America set up the no fly zones. The other minorities are heavily discriminated against. The Assyrians have been particularly prominent among recent exiles, but the future of Iraq will be determined by the Shi'a, Sunni and Kurds.

As difficult as it may be for many Americans to stomach, Iran may be a key to a non-violent compromise among the Shi'a. As the only other Shi'a dominated country, Iran was a safe-haven for Iranian Shi'a clerics and leaders during Saddam's regime and it has continued and strengthened those ties since Saddam's overthrow. However, the Iranian government does not appear to have chosen favorites among the Iranian Shi'a factions, so it has sway among them all.

Among the Iraqi Shi'a, the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani is the most respected religious leader and he brokered the uneasy truces in Najaf between the Americans and the Madhi Army, so he is

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