23 of 38

Write now Article Tools

Substitute the word "planning" for "conspiracy" and you can take a lot of the emotion out of understanding situations.

People plan. Clearly some people planned the attacks on the World Trade Center. Other people planned the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Organizations always have plans. Normally we don't use the word "conspiracy" for ordinary planning. Conspiracy is criminal planning. It may be criminal under the criteria of the legal system, or it may be secret planning because the goals or methods, if made public, would have a negative effect on the planners. Since criminal and unethical acts go on all the time, everywhere in the world, there is a lot of conspiracy. You can conspire with others to rob a bank, defraud a widow, or kill a bunch of peasants to get their land cheap.

Usually we call something a "conspiracy theory" when it goes against conventional explanations and concerns what we believe are extraordinary crimes. Take the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy. Clearly a lot of planning was involved, both criminal and non-criminal. The president's route was planned; there is always a security plan when a President is out and about. The assassin, Lee Oswald, had a plan for that day, otherwise he would not have bought a rifle and been seen in a building in the vicinity of the assassination.

When people start having to explain what Oswald's motives were and how he happened to be at the scene of the crime, plus some other debatable issues (directions of gunfire, number of bullets, etc.) you move into conspiracy theories. A theory can try to piece together evidence in order to get a true picture of reality. It can also be driven by other agendas. Even a conspiracy theorist seeking a true picture of reality can become confused by the array of evidence.

Criminals usually try to hide their crimes. The smarter ones try to create false evidence that will lead an investigator down a false path. This makes it very difficult for people to assess the legitimacy of a conspiracy theory. We know that sometimes people confess to crimes they did not commit; otehrs lie and refuse to admit to crimes they did commit; they fabricate and destroy evidence. Witnesses may lie, or may remember some things incorrectly.

Some conspiracy theories are ludicrous because there is so much evidence that shows them to be false. Holocaust denial is a good example of that.

I think the long life of Kennedy conspiracy theories has to do with the complicated evidence (and lack of evidence) combined with the plausibility of some of the theories. People certainly had motives for killing JFK. Lyndon Johnson may have wanted to be President. Certain CIA operatives may have been angry at his failure to use the U.S. military to overthrow the Castro regime in Cuba. The communists were not fond of him either. Every politician has to make decisions that will make one faction of people or another unhappy.

Calling an analysis a conspiracy theory is a means of discrediting it. Unless they just want to sell books, people who believe they are on the trail of a criminal conspiracy usually avoid the term conspiracy theory.

If even one person helped Lee Oswald to kill JFK, then there was a conspiracy. If people in a chain of command cover up an unsavory incident, as has happened in Iraq, there is a conspiracy. It it not a crime to suspect a criminal conspiracy has taken place. It is not a crime to explain your theory to others. It is not surprising that criminals would try to hide the facts, or endeavor to discredit your theory.

Each conspiracy theory should be evaluated based on the known facts and on our knowledge of human motives. The same way a good detective hunts down a gang of criminals who planned and executed a crime.

Learn more about this author, William Meyers.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.

Add your voice

Know something about Assessing the legitimacy of conspiracy theories?
We want to hear your view. Write now!