by Erik Markusson

Created on: September 23, 2007   Last Updated: September 26, 2007

According to Gen. David Petraeus the security situation in Iraq is slowly improving. Since the height of sectarian violence last December he reported that civilian deaths are down 45% and sectarian killings down 55%. In 8 of the last 12 weeks security incidents have declined. In fact, the last 2 weeks has seen the lowest levels of incidents since June of 2006. However, to keep things in perspective this reduction only brings violence levels back down to the level that existed before the al-Qaida bombing of the Samarra mosque in 2005 which triggered sectarian hostilities. The level of violence remains high and sectarian hostilities still exist. Thus the surge can only be considered somewhat successful.

The main objective however, of a free, stable and independent Iraq isn't being met. The surge was supposed to allow Iraqis time to make political gains. These gains are necessary to allow Iraq to become an independent and stable country. This doesn't seem to be happening. Ambassador Crocker said at the hearing that he couldn't point to as many successes as Petraeus. So far the Iraqi parliament has been unable to pass major laws that would foster Sunni-Shiite reconciliation.
Gains at the local level are more evident especially in Anbar province, a predominantly Sunni region. The bottom up restoration of local government seems to be working much better than attempts to restore Iraq at the national level in a top down fashion. This is all well and good but until there's progress on national scale Sunni-Shiite reconciliation won't happen if it ever does. Attempts to spread this bottom up approach across Iraq may not be as successful. For one thing Shia society is organized differently than the Sunnis. Whereas Sunnis organize into local tribes the Shiites tend to follow dynastic lines like the Sadrs.
Some progress has been made in training Iraqi troops so they can be self sufficient and able to handle security issues. However, not as much progress has been made with the national police. It was the national police who incited sectarian violence in southern Iraq. As a result they were retrained. Some units of the national police turned out alright others did not.
The most positive aspect of these successes is Gen. Petraeus recommending that troops can start leaving Iraq as soon as this month when 2000 marines are scheduled to return. An additional 3 to 4 thousand army troops will be withdrawn in mid-December. By the summer of 2008 30,000 troops will have been withdrawn from

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