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Facing our Carbon Challenge
By Pete Geddes,executive vice president of the Bozeman, Mont. based Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment (FREE).

The Annual Energy Forum recently hosted by Montana State University outlined the challenges of keeping carbon out of the atmosphere while supplying the energy people demand at prices they're willing to pay. I came away convinced that geoengineering, i.e., the deliberate modification of the Earth's environment, will receive ever more attention as the steep and unavoidable costs of mitigating carbon emissions become more obvious. Here's why.

Coal accounts for 37 percent of global emissions of CO2, a potent greenhouse gas. World reserves of coal are enormous, and are widely distributed around the globe; almost half of the proved reserves are in OECD countries. (The U.S. has a 25 percent share.) The world has enough economically recoverable coal that, at current rates of consumption, it will last 200 yearsfar beyond the thinking of most policymakers.

Demand for electricity is growing, with most coming from developing countries. Coal will be their fuel of choice. Why? Because it's both abundant and cheap. China uses it to fuel the rapid economic growth that is lifting millions from poverty. (China recently surpassed the U.S. as the world's largest CO2 emitter and is exempt from the requirements to reduce emissions under the Kyoto treaty.)

The Chinese, however, are discovering the heavy environmental and economic toll of fueling their economy with coal. Coal is a dirty fuel and China suffers massive environmental and health related problems. Of course, air pollution does not respect international boundaries. The Journal of Geophysical Research documents how Asian air pollution may make it hard for western states to meet the goals set by the Clean Air Act.

Unfortunately, there aren't good, easy alternatives for replacing coal anytime soon. The fastest-growing non-fossil fuelswind and solar powerare expected to climb an average of 10.5 percent annually. But by 2030 this will represent only about 1 percent of global energy demand. Renewables such as hydropower, wind, and biofuels face similar challenges. They just aren't capable of providing the energy, in a dependable manner and on a large enough scale, to meet base load generation demands. Nuclear is the one option that can make a difference. But just to hold its current 20 percent share of the U.S. energy market, dozens of new plants will have to be built in the

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