1 of 2

Write now Article Tools

Page 2 of 2

economic activities to you; then you have the beginnings of a tribe. As the state collapses these loyalties will become more and more apparent.

Why is the state collapsing? Largely because it has failed as a primary focus of its citizens' loyalties. In the case of Africa the states have long struggled to even build a nascent loyalty, but it is not just Africa that is seeing the end of the modern states' system. The United Kingdom was forced to concede autonomy to Scotland in a so-far successful attempt to head off a drive for full Scottish independence. However, one success story needs to be set against a whole tranche of failures of hold the modern state together. From the USSR and Yugoslavia to Afghanistan and Somalia; the state can not only collapse, it can implode. Even when a successor state manages to take over, it is often so weak that its coercive powers are limited. Groups within that state will then begin to operate autonomously as the power vacuum is filled. Sometimes those groups will be traditional, at other times they will be newcomers to the political scene. Either way they will challenge an already declining state for the peoples' loyalty.

Mexico is a case in point. In the South the Zapatista rebels control much of the Mayan areas. In the North the drug barons have stepped in where the state has failed and are providing money for schools, hospitals and even sports stadia. Yes, they are killing each other as well as innocent civilians who get in the way, but they are also creating statelets within the main state that are immune, seemingly, to the latter.

The state is thus losing its monopoly over death and destruction. Wars are now being fought by a whole range of people, as the Mexican drug dealers have shown. There is nothing that is actually new about this; that is the way that wars were fought before the rise of the modern state. It shouldn't come as any surprise to see these old forms of warfare return. Families used to fight wars, as did tribes, cities and religions. Now they have begun to do it again.

What is new is the way in which these conflicts are impacting on already weakened states by the effects of globalisation. Russia and Chechnya are a case in point. In the past those two could have gone at it until Hell had frozen over and it would not have effected the rest of us. However, what would happen if the Chechens decided to mount sustained attacks on the Gazprom network that supplies natural gas to Western Europe? One can imagine under such a scenario the Western powers pressuring Moscow to settle the conflict on terms favourable to the Chechens give them anything, so long as the gas continues to reach its consumers. In other words, globalisation, and the desire to ensure supplies and maximise profits, will tend to weaken a state that is already tottering.

So we are heading into a world that will be interesting to say the least. As the state loses its importance or vanishes altogether new forms of governance, conflict and personal relationships will have to emerge to provide security for the individual. It is likely that these new polities will be small, and probably led by the warlords who have emerged from the chaos of a state's implosion.

One thing is clear: the belief that the end of the Cold War would lead to the end of the historical process was clearly unfounded.

(1) http://www.wesjones.com/eoh.ht m

Learn more about this author, Kenneth Bell.
Click here to send this author comments or questions.

• << previous page
• 1
• 2

Add your voice

Know something about The future of the nation-state in the post-modern world?
We want to hear your view. Write now!