America will not attack Iran, without incontrovertible proof that Iran has attacked us. To date, the evidence against Iran has been entirely circumstantial. The Bush administration has backed off of some claims, when they could not be supported by available evidence. The allegations come in waves. If the neo-cons felt they could get away with it, they would attack Iran without delay. However, the US won't attack Iran because the American public does not support it and will not support it, without very credible evidence.

The only circumstance under which the US might attack Iran would be under a major terrorist action or Iranian provocation. Otherwise, the pro-Israel lobby is aggressively promoting the idea of unilateral attacks. We are in danger of property being damaged and persons being harmed, so caution is recommended, without any gain likely. U.S. leaders should sleep on any decisions to incite violence on a sovereign nation. Pre-emptive strikes are contrary to the U.N. Charter and international law.

Bush and the neo-cons claim that Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq, however the physical evidence is weak at best. So far, all Iranians captured in Iraq have been there on government or private purposes. The fact is that America provides support to several terrorist groups that cause violence inside Iran, including the PKK affiliate PJAC, the Jundallah from Beluchistan of Pakistan and the M.K.O., all fighting American proxy wars. Ironically, America claims Iran is fighting a proxy war against America in Iraq, but the evidence is weak, as it mostly consists of propaganda statements. Iran claims that its nationals who have been held as hostages in Iraq by America have been tortured, including use of an electric drill on skin.
America has assiduously avoided responding to the Iranian allegations.

There will be no attack on Iran, because it would gain nothing, while risking plenty.
Sunni Arab leaders of major Middle East countries warn that attacking Iran could cause Shiites to attack Sunnis in many different regions and try to expand their areas of influence. Besides, prudence dictates that America does not have sufficient military servicemen or the financial wherewithall to do it. However, that has not stopped Bush from foreign adventurism before. He could juggle resources, if he felt he could get American support.

Learn more about this author, Robert C. Sage.
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