by Robert C. Sage

Created on: September 08, 2007

Why would Shiite terrorists be happy to share their oil wealth with Sunni enemies? Why would Sunnis believe that Shiites would actually fairly implement the proposal, given the history of the post-Saddam governments. Much of the sectarian violence and ethnic cleansing is being done by the Shiites and al-Qaeda, so it is likely to continue unabated, even if the other Arab Sunnis put down their arms.

Thus, among the various Iraqi insurgencies, the oil law might help reduce violence from Sunni tribalists, some of whom are already working with Americans in al-Anbar, but not others. Because the oil law benefits the minority Sunnis, the majority Shiites may oppose it, directly or indirectly. Also, the position of the Kurds could be unaffected by the law, as they have substantial oil reserves in their areas and have little if any insurgency. Thus, the proposed oil law actually only helps Sunnis.

Inevitably, there are deeper reasons for Sunni and Shiite insurgencies. Americans may think the entire war is over control of natural resources, but Arab Iraqis have deep suspicions across the Sunni-Shiite divide. Perhaps, the Sunni parliamentarians will return to support the oil law. In any case, most terrorists don't like the law.

The only practical way to favorably impact a wide selection of disaffected Iraqis is to implement a massive economic development and full employment strategy. Even then, there are likely to be many who are permanently against America, due to the war. If the proposed oil law meant that every Iraqi was guaranteed a job, it would be a changed environment and might reduce sectarian tensions. It doesn't and won't.

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