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G.W. Bush already has problems finding troops to fight his current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. With American elections in 15 months, it would be political suicide for the republican party if America attacked Iran. Any attack would receive a counter attack and then it would be a war. Arab Sunni leaders believe that an America-Iran war would cause sectarian Shiite-Sunni violence throughout the Middle East. Attacking Iran would make it impossible for America to continue to work closely with Iraqi Shiites, compromising the foundation of the Bush War in Iraq, something he won't do.

The neo-con boasters who got us into the War in Iraq are the same who advocate attacking Iran. These are people who don't care if their policies alienate America from the rest of the world or cause many thousands of deaths. The belligerent advocates of American intervention in Iran believe that war is inevitable, so the sooner, the better. Such defeatists are deterministic and they believe they speak for God. Let's see evidence!

Bush will rant and rave. He may reposition forces and he may try to provoke Iran into attacking American forces. However, Bush does not have the country's support or the moral rectitude to make another war of choice. There is no immediate reason to attack now and there are plenty of options for talking directly or indirectly. Besides, Bush may need Iranian help with a final solution in Iraq and attacking would prevent any further openings with Iran.

An air attack on Iran would not definitively destroy their capabilities and it would unleash an unparallelled maelstrom of outrage. It would accomplish little, but it would create a host of new problems. Thus, attacking Iran would be counterproducitve to his objectives. Bush can't afford the firestorm of criticism it would bring.

Learn more about this author, Robert C. Sage.
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