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Predicting whether Labour will win the next election

by Charles Penman

Created on: July 30, 2007

The voters of the UK face a difficult choice when the next election is finally called and at this time - July 2007 - and that alone presents a rather sad insight into the state of British politics at this time.

The removal of Tony Blair has left a strange 'phoney war' between the Government and its opposition.On one hand, the appearance of Gordon Brown as his much maligned successor has not falling flat on the voting public, as many in the media ( particularly the right wing press) anticipated or hoped. Equally, instead of revitalising the Tory party, it appears to have hampered them and there is a growing feeling, certainly in the media that I've been reading, that David Cameron's panache and style doesn't compensate for the sheer lack of ability they appear to have in their ranks.

Yet Labour remains hampered by some of the policy issues it continues to promote. The National Health Service remains inconsistently average across the UK and the involvement of the private sector in its renewal verges on blind robbery of the public purse. Equally the inconsistencies of the tax system, particularly for a party proclaiming its role in social justice, is shameful and it is difficult to find a positive word about its sheer unwillingness to address many of these clearly unfair situations. And then there's Iraq.......

Yet I still feel Labour can win the next election unless the Conservative party cuts lose from the current emphasis on presentation and brings forward clear, concise and workable policies. Given its current state and the peculiar relationship it has with parts of its own party, its difficult to come to that conclusion and I suspect there's going to be quite a bit of 'choppy waters' ahead for David Cameron and his team.

Which leaves one last and possible solution - a hung parliament - which would benefit none of the main parties because the Liberal Democrats are liable to place considerable emphasis on electoral reform before joining any coalition.

And somewhere in the middle of all this lies the voter, disillusioned and disappointed with years of failed policies, spin, poor decisions and a total lack of real accountability.....and no real choice. And that is the real story about UK politics.

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