by James Coles

Created on: July 16, 2007

Al Qaeda, as an organization, is actually small - no more than a few thousand fighters in any current operational theater...Al Qaeda's leadership, especially senior levels of second-tier leaders, is in constant flux because of lethal attrition inflicted by Western forces or forces friendly to the West. This leadership flux adversely impacts organizational ability to plan and execute against desired targets...While still dangerous at the tactical level, the greater, more strategic threat arises from the conflict between backward looking Islamic theory employed for self-serving reasons by a variety of social-religious-political influencers, and the reality of the modern world.

On the whole, Al Qaeda's military and operational capabilities have been significantly degraded since the US and allies commenced coherent military/civil-military actions against them. Only the most senior of the core organization's leadership appears to have remained intact; and although this leadership is the doctrinal and philosophical 'head of the snake' the core leadership group appears to have little direct operational control over its franchise operations in theaters beyond Afghanistan and the Duran Line region (or semi-autonomous tribal regions) of far northern Pakistan.

Al Qaeda is more a reflection of a social movement than it is a cogent fighting force. There is within the Muslim world a disconnect between Islam's life system-pervasive theology and life in the modern world. The operant philosophy within the Al Qaeda network is extreme fundamentalist Wahabi Sunni Islam; a throwback theo-philosophy which rejects modernity (because this version of Islam is incapable of compromise or evolutionary social growth) which seeks to impose Sharia Law on all other societies, i.e., because Wahabism can't adjust to any values system other than its own, other values systems must be changed to conform to with the Wahabist's values.

While the Al Qaeda movement uses elements of modern technology effectively, particularly the Internet, neither Al Qaeda, its franchised offshoot groups, other types of radicalized Sunnis and certain nationalistic sects within the Shia 'denomination' of Islam actually embrace modernism.

With the advent of satellite TV in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, the average person may now see glimpses, images, of Westernism. In some countries wherein all media are state-owned, only the most reprehensible of Western images are allowed...For example, the Iranian government, the

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