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Feeling uneasy about Iraq? You should be...
While our President and the 2008 constellation of White House hopefuls from both parties publicly posture about how to exit the war in Iraq, the American public remains anxious and doubtful about a positive outcome. Regardless of whether you support President Bush's decisions on Iraq or not, your innate discomfort with this wildly expensive and deadly show of force is well-founded; the American public is not getting the whole truth about why we are there.

We've been told from the outset that this war was a preemptive response to terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and a dangerous dictator. We were further informed that standing up a democracy in Iraq would bring peace and stability to the region. The US has obvious national security interests in these matters, however, they pale in comparison to the real reason... global oil production has peaked, the threat of geopolitical disturbances to our supply chain is real, and America must secure it's future supplies.

We are at the nexus of several unsettling trends. America consumes almost 26% of the world's crude oil, yet we produce less than half our needs. OPEC's production remains flat. China and India, not to mention other emerging countries with burgeoning economies and growing middle class consumption patterns, are becoming major competitors for this dwindling resource. Almost 75% of the world's stated reserves are held by seven countries, Saudi Arabia (25.5%), Iraq (11.1%), Kuwait (9.5%), Iran (9.2%), United Arab Emirates (7.8%), Venezuela (6.2%), and Russia (5%). All are controlled by either Sunni or Shia Muslims, an avowed Socialist, or the former head of the KGB. Not a pretty picture, in terms of national security, for a country that glorifies 4x4 pick-ups and jumbo SUV's and in a world where the term "American" has become a hated epithet.

You'll notice I said "stated" reserves. That's another problem, because there is a strong body of growing evidence to suggest that Saudi Arabia, along with Exxon, BP, Royal Dutch/Shell and other producers, has padded or overstated how much easily recoverable oil is in the ground awaiting future production (I guess they went to the Enron School of Accounting). Global demand will exceed available supplies in the very near future. This will result in gasoline prices doubling, or even tripling, and create a lot of unrest here at home. Wild cards in all of this are the Athabasca Tar sands in northern Alberta, Canada

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