by Stephen Shea

Created on: April 28, 2007   Last Updated: May 01, 2007

In 2007, the United States is running out the clock on its "unipolar moment." We have lived as the world's only superpower for almost two decades, and we are wasting our wealth and our international status on consumption and ill-advised military adventures.

Four countries appear poised to take up the role of world's most powerful state by the latter half of the 21st century. They are:

China, which is the world's most populous, and it has more trained, active duty soldiers than any other country. Its rule at home is relatively stable, and its economic growth has been over 10% annually for a decaade. If China does not emerge as the next sole superpower, it will at least have played a role in displacing the United States, because China owns a great chunk of US debt, which it could attempt to reclaim at any moment.

Russia, the world's second most dangerous nuclear power, has a growing economy, a powerful military, a population unable to effectively oppose central government policies, and great energy and mineral resources. Furthermore, global climate change is likely to increase the productivity of Russia's farmland.

Brazil is an emerging international player. It's smaller than the US in territory, but President Lula da Silva's government has proved adept at cooperating with other nations like India and China to accomplish its aims at the UN and in international trade agreements. Brazil has also invested heavily in alternative fuels, and is a net exporter of energy resources during a period of economic growth. The country is wracked by inequality, and is in the process of paving over the Amazon for its export beef and produce markets.

India is the only established democracy on this list. It is in a case of almost continual low-level warfare with some of its citizens, but ir remains a vibrant, representative democracy. The population in India will likely surpass China's by 2020, which can only serve to exascerbate India's problems. India may yet make peace in Jammu and Kashmir, and begin to foster economic equality, which India will need if it is to be stable in mid-century.

Of these, I am putting my money on China because of the government's surprising ability to respond to new challenges despite its enormous scale.

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