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The "answer" for Iraq is simple, complex, and not an answer at all. For the occupying allied forces, the simple thing to do is just leave. Their main concern should be to leave without suffering too many casualties. This type of departure could be done inside of a year. No other consideration should be taken, other than making the departure smooth and quick.

The effect of such departure will however result in some scuffles and possibly a degree of civil unrest or even civil war. The important thing will be is the act of giving the Iraqi the opportunity to be self-determining people. The Iraqi people should determine their own destiny and form their own style of government.

Civil War
If a civil war does break out, the oil resources will probably become targets and pawns in a power struggle. This will inevitable jerk world oil prices up. The world oil market is notoriously an emotional and speculative market. It is quick to find any reason to push up prices.

In the event of a civil war, a strong will eventually come out. However at the outset, possibly for decades following the strong man will have to consolidate his power by whatever means at his disposal. The fractious nature of the sect, ethnic divisions, and tribal powers will come into important play. Some kind of coalition will have to be made.

Provisional Iraqi Government
The Provisional Iraqi Government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki enjoys limited power, success, and acceptance by the populace. Maliki will have to make coalitions of substance or become another foot of Iraq. He will have to overcome the stench of US and A, which of the remaining Iraqi is was a welcome liberation. It has since become something of another occupier to boot out.

Tribalism
Tribalism is matter of sense of belonging in Iraq. As much as an individual belongs to a family, he belongs to a tribe. It is this sense of belonging that can glue Iraq together. Handled incorrectly, this very same sense of belonging can undo Iraq.

Iraq is over 70% Arab about over 20% Kurds. The mountain Kurds aspire, indeed act as country within Iraq under occupation. The Kurds will certainly loath to give up power to a provisional or fledgling government.

Sectarian Violence
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq has seen bouts of sectarian violence. These differences were repressed by the Baath Party, which is now out of power and a historical footnote. Iraq under Hussein was a one party dictatorship.

The two main sects have struck at each other and the

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